Well it is that time of year again – RACE SEASON!!!

With the start of my race season descending upon me this Sunday with Victoria 70.3, I thought I best continue the tradition of throwing up a race prediction.

I wasn’t going to do this for a number of reasons, most of all I’m having a hard time gauging my preparedness. Here’s a few reasons why:

  • I’m tackling my nutrition in a drastically different way – no gels, sugary drinks, just real food – and this will be the first test.
  • This will be the first distance over 12km in my new, zero-drop shoes, so far they are great, but who knows what happens when you put it all together.
  • My training approach has changed. I’m doing more strength, less total distance volume and less “junk-mile” zone training this year.
  • I only decided to do the race 4 weeks ago. I feel like my preparation isn’t on par with previous races – but maybe that’s because I have the experience and am more comfortable now. Hard to say.
  • My trip is quick. Fly in Saturday morning, leave Sunday afternoon – no really settle or soak time.

However, I realized that it served the greater purpose of allowing me to reflect on my training to date and some forced visualization of how Sunday could play out. In fact, this exercise has helped me focus and feel a little more confident heading into Sunday.

So here we go. My predictions for Sunday.

Overall Time – 5:29

This will be slower than last year. I think this for many reasons, the most of which are presented above. The fact of the matter is, I just do not feel as confident going in. Victoria never was my priority race. I always viewed it as a test case for the new approaches and things I was trying out. Coupled with the fact that about 4 weeks ago I wasn’t even sure I’d race it, I think this time is pretty fair guess.

Swim – 0:41

The swim I feel pretty good about. Wetsuit swim, great lake. I’ve been putting in some good swim times lately and I feel not bad in the water, probably for the first time ever before a race. Consistent with my previous swim times at Victoria (2016 was 31 minutes, but only 1500 meters).

Transition – 0:05

I’ve been focusing on my transitions in training. I’m travelling light and keeping things as bare as possible. Wet suit off. Shoes, helmet and sunglasses on and off I go. I hope 5 minutes is high.

Bike – 2:40

I feel mixed on the bike prediction. I love the Victoria course and had a great 2:32 last year, including the feeling that I left a little on the course. This year I haven’t put in nearly as much bike time, but still feel extremely strong and efficient on the bike. It will be a game time decision on how hard I decide to push the bike, but chances are I will push it. If I do, I can see this being below 2:30, but we shall see.

Transition – 0:03

Again, I’ve been practicing these and am hopeful they will be much faster than previous years. In and out. No hesitation.

Run – 2:00

As per usual, the run is where things are still up in the air. I’ve had issues all of last year on the run and have been focusing hard this off season to deal with them. I feel stronger and feel that again I’m in good shape to push the run. That being said, it will be coming off the back end of a new nutrition approach and my first barefoot shoe distance of over 12 km. We shall see. I feel instinctively that two hours is conservative, but again, game time decision.

So there we have it. The fact of the matter remains that Victoria was always going to me my “test” race for the coming year and the changes I was expecting to make. I’m not exactly where I thought I would be, so we will see how that plays out in this first race.

I’m semi-confident going in and I know that my previous race experience will take me a long way.

My excitement is starting to race as I love race day and the rush it brings.

Here is to a great race and a beautiful day!

Happy Training or racing everyone!!!