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As I prepare my Ironman Cozumel Race Report, I thought I'd take a little break from that post and give an update on a previous post about predicting your Triathlon Bike Leg using Best Bike Split My prediction was pretty close for Ironman Victoria 70.3, so how did it stack up as a predictive measure for my latest race?

Pretty darn well actually.

As a review, for the Ironman Cozumel course it predicted a time of 5:12:26. It is important to note that this was based on my selected input variables (which i'll address later)

Here is my bike data from my race.

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screenshot-53

My total time on the bike was 5:41:50, with a moving time of 5:35:23.  The 6:27 of non-moving time represents a short stop due to a water bottle malfunction and one pee break. All on the fly decisions not accounted for in the time difference.

So, using the 5:35:23 number, there was roughly a 23 minute difference between the BestBikeSplit and my race time. That alone I think is a pretty good estimation over 180km or racing. But for fun, let's identify a few factors that I think would have even closed this gap:

  1. The temperature I used was 8 degrees cooler than race day (11 days if accounting for humidity).
  2. The wind was significantly stronger than I used in the model. As can be seen by the low flat periods in the 25 km/hr range.
  3. I chose to take a couple stops
  4. At about the 3 hour mark I made a conscious decision - on account of the wind, the heat and the forthcoming Marathon - that I would sacrifice some bike time for a better all around race. In the end an amazing decision.

All and all, I stand by BestBikeSplit as a great option to provide yourself some estimation of your anticipated bike split and to help you manage your race overall.

Definitely something I'll be utilizing next year.

For now, it is -22 degrees (-31 with wind chill) and I'm stuck inside on the trainer.

Happy Off Season Everyone!

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