Well here we go, 9 days out. Time to start some mathing to figure out just what I should be shooting for, and where I should set my expectations for the right balance of drive, jubilation, and pace. Hard, long workouts over the past weeks have neted the following race day expectations:
Swim Target Time: 1h30m
Swim pace should be at or better than 2:10/100m. My last 4000m effort was at 2:09/100m. Add some time for not being in a pool (wall push offs make swimming easier) but subtract some time for wearing a wetsuit (wetsuits are basically cheating) and the helpful swimming draft (also cheating). Also, account for the fact that I always end up swimming longer than the measured course. Hopefully I can limit my extra metres to +10%, although in some races I've gone nearly double (hurray for tides).
Bike Target Time: 7h20m
I'm not proud of this time, but now is not the time to worry about that. Instead, I will simply accept it and plan accordingly. My training results show that an average speed of 25km/h is attainable. I'm hoping (although not planning) that my real world average is higher than my trainer average (which it often is). 180km ride, plus a few breaks (bathroom, food, selfies(jk)) gives me my target time above. At least at that pace I should be able to hop off the bike ready for a solid (if slow) run. Bike goal? Don't blow up, there's still a marathon ahead.
Run Target Time: 4h55m
Pacing strategy is to run 6:30 - 6:40m/km off the bike, accelerating to 6:15m/km in the second half of the marathon if I have the energy. My longest run in training was just over 26km, so I will have roughly 16.2 unknown kilometres to get myself through come race day. Anything can happen, but factoring in a strategy of walking every rest stop and keeping my cadence up I'm hoping that I can persevere and bring it on home with some bounce to my stride (but not to much bounce...).
Transitions: 15 minutes total
Two transitions. Average times seem to be in the 8 - 10 minute mark per transition. I don't plan on taking that long, mostly because I don't really plan on changing anything except my shoes. But you never know. So this gives me a comfortable cushion either way. Besides, transitions don't really count do they? ;-)
Grand Total: 14 Hours Even
Right on the money. Haha, I actually didn't plan that! Weird....
So, stretch goal is obviously finishing in the 13+ hour range. Cushion has me finishing north of 15 hours, with a blow up cushion still getting me to the finish before the 17 hour cut off.
Actually, I feel pretty good about that seeing it in writing for the first time. All that's left is to execute. Easy peasy.
And for my fans and loyal spectators, you've got about 14 hours of tequila shots and beer pong ahead of you. You'd best rest up yourselves, this is going to be a slog.