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Well here we go, 8 days out. Time to start some mathing to figure out just what I should be shooting for, and where I should set my expectations for the right balance of drive, jubilation, and pace. A long year of training (well for the most part), multiple races and some intense training weeks have netted the following race day expectations:

Swim Target Time:  1h 45m

Oh swimming .... swimming swimming swimming. This one is pretty hard for me to be honest. There are so many factors at play that are making this tough for me to predict. My last event my swim time was 2:10/100 meters. That swim was a wetsuit swim (cheating according to Trevor). This swim is not a wetsuit swim. That's new. This swim is in the ocean. That's new. On the positive side, it is a straight swim - point to point, direct shot - and it is with the current. All helpful. Fact of the matter is: training swims were somewhere between 2:00-2:20/100 meters. Given my swimming tendencies - panic attacks, freak outs, etc I'm conservatively saying 1h 45 min.

Bike Target Time:  5h 45m

I've done a lot of thinking about the bike leg. In fact, I've done a lot of analysis on this using some pretty cool tools out there like Best Bike Split. Given different conditions I've got anywhere between 5:04 and 5:15 using their algorithm.  I think that is pretty aggressive, even using 65% FTP. There are number of reasons I'm estimating a little higher - temperature, humidity and the fact that I have to run a marathon after the bike. I think 5:45 is conservative but achievable given the variables and circumstances.

Run Target Time:  4h 00m

My running has been improving a great deal from my previous races - Victoria 70.3 and Calgary 70.3. I've concentrated on strengthening my glutes and focusing on my running form to avoid nagging issues that plagued me during those races. I've been comfortably running 10.5km/hrs, even after some intense brick sessions off the bike. I think 4 hours is achievable but I'm cautiously optimistic I could do better or if I decide to push the bike, this might stretch past 4h a wee bit.

Transitions:  15 minutes total

Grand Total:  11h 45m 

So there you go friends and family, 11h 45m. This means we start with the sunrise and will finish with the sunset.

I think it is important to keep in mind that I race for me and against me.

I'm out there because I enjoy this.

When I swim, bike, run I'm taken to another place. A place of calm, peace, serenity, focus.

It is my full intention to go out and enjoy myself. To take it all in. To give it my best and see what happens.

Go team!

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